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Mideast Turmoil
July 20th, 2006
The mistake that North American media is making is one of focus. They are focusing on the evacuation from Lebanon. The evacuation is a major story, but the real concern, and thus the spotlight, needs to be on further escalation.
By escalation, I am not meaning an increase in intensity of operations. Rather, I am referring to further nations getting involved.
In the last two years, every major leader from the six main countries in the mideast has changed. Iran, Israel, Palestine, Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan. No one yet knows their policies, their motivations, or their political style.
For example, one can not yet know how Ahmadenijad in Iran will react to an Israel invasion of Lebanon.
Olmert, Prime Minister in Israel, is being tested for the first time. How far will he push the envelope?
In the mideast, there are more unknowns and wildcards than at any time in the last thirty years. That is why it is frightening that most people think, "this is just another part of the same old story of mideast violence."
It is quite the opposite actually.
Some of the latest causes for concern:
- Israel is hinting at full-scale invasion of Lebanon
- Iran has stated that any strikes against Syria will be met with military response from Iran
- Russia has made strong comments against Israel's military actions and called for immediate ceasefire
- U.S. has taken the opposite position to that, saying that Israel has the right to take whatever actions necessary to ensure security
- even nations like China have been getting involved in the diplomatic process
Much like Korea and Viet Nam, the mideast could potentially act as a theater for the ideological and political positions of bigger nations. (Lines will be drawn between U.S, UK, Israel, France on one side, versus Russia, China, Iran, Lebanon, and Syria.)
This is not implying war, just all the military and political posturing that comes with it.
The worrisome aspect of issues like this, is one truth that has been proven hundreds of times in the history of mankind. Nations do not walk away from conflict. They get involved. I expect that this conflict is just getting started.